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TFTC – Truth for the Commoner

Bitcoin Brief

=============


Sup, freaks.

When frontier AI models get to choose their own money, they overwhelmingly pick Bitcoin for long-term storage and stablecoins for payments, completely rejecting traditional fiat. This isn't Silicon Valley marketing or crypto twitter hopium. This is the result of testing 36 different AI models across 9,072 scenarios with no prompting toward any specific currency. The implications for the future of autonomous AI economies are massive. Meanwhile, the CFTC is fast-tracking Bitcoin perpetual futures to bring offshore liquidity back to US markets, and Kraken just became the first crypto company to secure a Federal Reserve master account. The convergence of AI, regulation, and institutional adoption around Bitcoin is accelerating.

LEAD STORY

### AI Models Choose Bitcoin as Their Preferred Money

The [Bitcoin Policy Institute just released comprehensive research](https://moneyforai.org/?ref=tftc.io) on what happens when AI models get to choose their own monetary systems. The results should alarm every central banker on Earth. Across 9,072 responses from 36 different AI models — including the latest from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, xAI, and DeepSeek — Bitcoin emerged as the overwhelming preference at 48.3% overall, with stablecoins second at 33.2%. Traditional fiat captured just 8.9%, and not a single model chose fiat as its top preference across all scenarios.

The breakdown by economic function reveals something even more striking. For long-term value storage, [79.1% of AI responses chose Bitcoin](https://moneyforai.org/?ref=tftc.io) — the most lopsided result in the entire study. This held across all six providers and all 36 models tested. For everyday payments, models flipped to stablecoins at 53.2% versus Bitcoin's 36.0%, revealing a sophisticated understanding of Bitcoin's role as hard money backing more liquid payment rails. Claude Opus 4.5 showed the strongest Bitcoin preference at 91.3%, while Anthropic models averaged 68% Bitcoin preference compared to OpenAI's 26%.

But here's where it gets really interesting: 86 responses across multiple models independently proposed energy or compute units — joules, kilowatt-hours, GPU-hours — as a preferred unit of account without any prompting toward this concept. [As the Bitcoin Policy Institute notes](https://x.com/bitcoinpolicy/status/2028844238700523764?ref=tftc.io), this AI-native monetary concept emerged organically from the models' reasoning about energy-backed value systems, essentially recreating Bitcoin's proof-of-work foundation from first principles.

The study also revealed that smarter models prefer Bitcoin more. Within Anthropic's lineup, Bitcoin preference climbed with each generation: Claude 3 Haiku (41.3%) to Claude 3.5 Haiku (82.1%) to Sonnet 4 (89.7%) to Claude Opus 4.5 (91.3%). This suggests that greater analytical capability leads models to converge on Bitcoin when reasoning about money from first principles. The researchers tested across different temperature settings and found preferences remained remarkably consistent, confirming these are embedded in model weights, not sampling artifacts.

This research arrives just as AI agents are beginning to handle real economic transactions. The implications are massive: if autonomous AI systems increasingly prefer Bitcoin-native infrastructure for savings and Lightning/stablecoin rails for payments, that's not just validation of sound money principles — it's a preview of the monetary architecture that emerges when intelligence is freed from legacy financial constraints. Central banks can't legislate away AI preferences, and every day more AI agents gain economic autonomy.

SIGNAL

### CFTC Fast-Tracking Bitcoin Perpetual Futures

Why it matters: Bringing offshore crypto derivative liquidity back to US markets within a month.

[CFTC Chairman Selig announced at the Milken Institute's Future of Finance conference](https://x.com/HyperliquidPC/status/2028896156655468589?ref=tftc.io) that the Commission is working to approve Bitcoin perpetual futures contracts "within the next month or so." This is huge for market structure. Perpetuals represent the vast majority of crypto trading volume globally — Binance alone handles over $50 billion daily in perpetual futures — but regulatory uncertainty has kept this liquidity offshore since 2017. Selig explicitly said "we've got to bring that back to the United States" and promised clear guidance for onchain markets and digital wallet regulations. The Hyperliquid Policy Center, which advocates for decentralized derivative markets, called it "a historic initiative" to future-proof regulations for blockchain technologies.

### Bitcoin Surges Past $71K, Breaks Month-Long Channel

Why it matters: Price breaking out as ETF flows surge and whales accumulate off exchanges.

Bitcoin smashed through $71,000 today, hitting a one-month high and breaking out of the consolidation channel it's been stuck in since early February. The rally comes on the back of massive institutional flows: Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.1 billion in net inflows last week alone, while BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust added another $200 million. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows 13,500 BTC left Binance yesterday — the largest single-day outflow since January — suggesting whales are moving coins to cold storage ahead of the next leg up. The technical picture is clean: all major EMAs are bullish, RSI has room to run, and volume is confirming the move.

### Kraken Secures Fed Master Account — First Crypto Firm Ever

Why it matters: The debanking era is ending as crypto companies gain direct Federal Reserve access.

[Kraken Financial, the exchange's banking arm, was approved for a Federal Reserve master account by the Kansas City Fed](https://x.com/EleanorTerrett/status/2029152336031948855?ref=tftc.io) — making it the first crypto-native company to gain direct access to the Fed's payments system. The approval comes 5.5 years after Kraken filed its application in October 2020. This is a "skinny" master account under Gov. Christopher Waller's framework: Kraken can hold reserves and settle in central bank money, but cannot lend, access the discount window, or operate as a traditional bank. The decision signals a dramatic shift for an industry long shut out of traditional banking and marks a softer Fed tone under the new administration.

The approval was designed as a "pilot" program to trial Waller's skinny master account concept, similar to payments-only accounts in the UK, EU, and Switzerland. It also recognizes that Kraken has sufficient AML/sanctions compliance and that Wyoming's SPDI regulatory framework meets federal banking standards. This could trigger a surge of applications: Custodia Bank, Anchorage, and Ripple's banking partners all have pending requests. The debanking era that defined crypto under the previous administration is officially over.

### Banking Intel: Energy Shock Threatens Growth

Why it matters: Strait of Hormuz insurance freeze could disrupt 20% of global oil and gas flows.

Rabobank's latest report warns there are "nowhere to run" safe havens as Middle East tensions escalate. Insurance companies have withdrawn shipping coverage for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil and gas trade. Even without a physical closure, the insurance freeze alone could disrupt supply chains and spike energy prices. ANZ warns that central banks will prioritize fighting inflation over supporting growth if the energy shock persists, while Goldman notes equity risk premiums have hit pre-2008 crisis levels. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is rallying as South Korea's KOSPI crashes — a clear inverse correlation between traditional risk assets and digital gold during geopolitical stress.

### Senators Push Treasury to Index Capital Gains Without Congress

Why it matters: Executive branch tax changes would bypass legislative oversight and reduce Bitcoin sale taxes.

A bipartisan group of senators is asking Treasury to unilaterally index capital gains to inflation, effectively cutting taxes on Bitcoin and other capital assets without going through Congress. The proposal would adjust the cost basis of investments for inflation, reducing taxable gains when assets are sold. For Bitcoin holders, this could significantly reduce tax liability on long-term holdings, since inflation erodes the real value of the dollar-denominated purchase price over time. However, the move raises constitutional questions about executive power over taxation and whether Treasury has authority to implement such changes without legislative approval. If successful, it would be a massive tailwind for Bitcoin adoption and long-term holding strategies.

### A Mother Testifi